Patriots will be fine without Tom Brady still favorites in AFC East

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If you love manufactured scandals, you're no doubt elated that Deflategate is back in the news. And this time an appeals court has reinstated Tom Brady's four-game suspension. Which means that, barring a legal miracle, Brady will almost certainly mi s the first month of the season.But just like last time, the Patriots remain favorites to win the AFC East, and Brady's backup, whether it's -- or a yet-to-be-named player (more on that below) -- will be fine.Sound familiar? It should, because 11 months ago we were having a similar conversation after Brady first faced a four-game suspension. Four months later -- and a week before the start of the 2015 season -- a judge overturned the decision and Brady ended up not mi sing any time. But the NFL wasn't going to let the i sue go away quietly, and here we are, Harry Gilles III Jersey a week before the 2016 NFL Draft, talking again about Brady's role in deflating footballs. And more importantly, what this means for the Patriots, a team with currently one other quarterback on the roster: Jimmy Garoppolo.We covered much of this ground in May 2015 but it's worth revisiting since Deflategate refuses to die. Nearly a year later, some things have changed, though many haven't.First things first: Brady is expected to mi s games against the , , and . The a sumption seems to be that the Brady-le s Patriots can't afford a slow start because it could doom the season. A few things, beginning with the AFC East: First, the ' 2015 quarterback is currently holding out for more money and the alternative to 33-year-old is , who lost his job last August after getting sucker-punched in the jaw. was slightly above replacement-level in his first season in Buffalo. And while he's a clear upgrade over , the front office has said several times that drafting a quarterback isn't out of the question. Then there's , who has been a disappointment in Miami though maybe this is the year he puts it altogether under new coach and quarterbacks guru Adam Gase.Funny story: Last offseason, Manuel and were expected to battle for the Bills' starting gig. Taylor ended up atop the depth chart and two weeks into the season the Bills traded Ca sel to the Cowboys.This is the same Matt Ca sel who, in his fourth NFL season, became the namele s face who replaced Brady after Brady suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the first game of the 2008 season. Up to that point, Ca sel was best known as and Matt Leinart's backup at USC, Jusuf Nurkic Jersey and for having last started an organized football game in high school. Ca sel was a seventh-round pick in 2005 and from 2005-'07, he completed 22 of 39 regular-season pa ses (56.4 percent), with two touchdowns and an interception.After Ca sel was thrust into the lineup following Brady's injury, he led the team to a 10-5 record in 15 starts. The Pats mi sed the playoffs, but plugging a late-round afterthought in for a future Hall of Famer with comparable results not only grew Bill Belichick's legend, it had everything to do with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels landing the Broncos job a few years later.Of course, it helped that Ca sel was given the keys to the NFL's most explosive offense, one that included a resurgent Randy Mo s and an in-his-prime . Still, it's hard to argue with how well Belichick and McDaniels managed Ca sel, who finished the 2008 season with a completion percentage of 63.4 (a career high), 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. If you think Garoppolo, the Patriots' 2014 second-round pick, is better than a raw, unproven-even-in-college Ca sel, New England will be just fine.Consider this:Garoppolo's regular-season stats over two seasons -- 20 of 31 for 188 yards, a touchdown and no picks -- aren't that different from Ca sel's numbers (22 of 39, 253 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) before he was thrust into the lineup.In 2007, when the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season and Brady threw for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns, the offense ranked first in the league (duh), according to Football Outsiders. A season later, the offense ranked seventh, and that was after replacing Brady, the top-ranked pa ser, with Ca sel Enes Kanter Jersey , who ranked 18th.The Patriots finished last season with the No. 5 offense (4th in pa sing, 12th in rushing), according to ' metrics. It's reasonable to expect that number to slip over the first month of the season but not by much if Garoppolo can play at replacement level, which is what Ca sel did in 2008.The Patriots started the 2014 season at 2-2, and Brady played some truly forgettable football. Anybody remember that Week 4 beatdown in Kansas City? Brady finished 14 of 23 for 159 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions, including a pick-six, and the Pats were trounced, 41-14. Things got so ridiculous during the post-game pre s conference that Belichick was asked if the "quarterback position will be evaluated."The Patriots finished that season 10-2 and went on Mario Hezonja Jersey to win the Super Bowl. In 2015 with Brady at the helm from start to finish, the Patriots started 10-0 and finished 12-4 before losing to the Broncos in the AFC Championship game.* The biggest i sue facing the Patriots during Brady's absence could be the defense. The unit ranked 11th in 2007 during New England's historic run, and they were 17th with Ca sel in 2008. Last year, they were 12th. A top-10 effort in September would go a long way in helping Garoppolo and the offense.If everything comes together, when Brady returns the Patriots could be 2-2 and even 3-1 (just like their 2008 start with Ca sel). New England opens the season in Arizona in a nationally televised game. The Cardinals are one of the league's best teams, with the 4th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense last season. Then Pats host the Dolphins in Week 2. The Dolphins are much better against the Pats in Miami, and there's little evidence suggesting that this is the year everything comes together for Tannehill. Week 3: The Texans and new quarterback come to Gillette Stadium Last season in seven starts with the Broncos, Osweiler was replacement level. Week 4: The Pats host the Bills and Rex Ryan. A season ago, Taylor was a pleasant surprise Ryan's defense plummeted to 24th overall.Again, 2-2 seems perfectly believable, and if the Patriots catch a few breaks, 3-1 isn't a stretch. Put another way: For a few games, good teams can survive the lo s of their best player. For example, back in 2010, Goodell suspended Steelers quarterback for the first four games. The combination of Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh to a 3-1 record, and four months later, they were playing in the Super Bowl.There's also this: Back in January 2015, during Super Bowl week, the Patriots coaching staff couldn't talk up Garoppolo enough. He ran the scout team, which included doing a spot-on impre sion. "When we play quarterbacks like we're going to see in the Super Bowl , that's a huge role for us," defensive coordinator Matt Patricia said at the time. "This is definitely a kind of unsung hero job."Belichick added: " Garoppolo's been practice player of the week for us a number of weeks, probably could've been more, for the look that he gives the defense."The Patriots don't need Garoppolo to emulate Brady for the first four games of next season, they just need him to be better than Tyrod or Ryan or whomever ends up as the Jets' quarterback. Unle s...Oh right, one more thing: The Patriots currently have just two quarterbacks on the roster -- Brady and Garoppolo. And you know who's currently looking for work? , who began his NFL career with the Patriots, signing as an undrafted free agent. After stops in Cleveland and Houston, returning Robert Covington Jersey to New England makes a lot of sense for Hoyer, who had to be convinced by his agent to sign with the Pats."My agent was like, I think you should go to New England," Hoyer said in December 2015, via . "And I said, Youre crazy because they have Tom Brady, they had a guy who had been there for Trevor Ariza Jersey a few years, and then the year before they had drafted a guy in the third round. Hes like, No, I think they really like you. And if anything, its a great opportunity to learn from Tom Brady, Coach OBrien, Bill Belichick.'"So I went in with that mindset, just soak it all up. I dont know if Im going to make the team, if Im going to be on the practice squad, whatever it is. Just soak it all up." Hoyer even told a story of Brady interrupting Hoyer's hacky sack game (seriously) and grilling him about the playbook even though no one was under any illusions that Hoyer might ever see the field."He came up and he was like, Hey, do you know what to do on this play?" Hoyer recalled of his rookie season. "He rattled off some play I had never heard of before. I was like, Uh, not really. He goes, Well then you better learn because if something happens to me, you need to carry this team. I was like, 'Wow, heres a guy whos won three Super Bowls, however many MVPs, and hes holding me accountable as his backup quarterback to make sure that if something happens to him, Im ready to go.'"Now Brady's words could prove to be prophetic.Still, the bottom line remains: Whomever's under center for the Patriots for those first four games doesn't change the fact that they remain favorites to win the division and return to the playoffs for the eigth straight year. Incidentally, the last time Pats mi sed the playoffs? In 2008, with Ca sel as the starter, even though the team finished 11-5.
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